The Silver Tsunami: My predictions vs. reality

Back in 2023, I made an Instagram post that went viral predicting the world’s largest wealth transfer:

The Silver Tsunami.

For the unfamiliar: 75M boomers will retire by 2030. Boomers own 45% of all US small businesses, which means $10 trillion in assets will have to change hands to the next generation.

In that post, I said boomers would be begging people to buy their businesses.

As of 2025, I've got 8 acquisitions under my belt. Along the way, I've been in the trenches, watching this market shift play out in real time.

And the truth is...

The Silver Tsunami IS happening.

This IS the best time to buy.

But it's not the straightforward gold rush I predicted.

Here's why:

The value of commercial real estate

Boomers bought land and buildings for their businesses decades ago when they were worth thousands. Now, they’re worth millions.

If the real estate that comes with a business is worth more than can be debt serviced, then that’ll end up being a big problem — the business has to be liquidated, and the real estate must be sold to a developer.

The aftermath of COVID-19

A third of small businesses shut down permanently during the pandemic, and many that survived still aren’t as profitable as they were five years ago.

Some owners can’t bear the thought of selling at a lower valuation, and you won’t get a reasonable price out of them.

Boomer psychology

Boomers tend to think of themselves as “being the business.”

Some would rather close up shop entirely instead of giving away their “life’s work” to a stranger.

Dodgy bookkeeping is everywhere

I’ve run across tons of boomer businesses where the owners purposefully record as little profit as possible to reduce tax, by making off-the-books cash in hand deals.

If you’re looking for SBA financing, this will make it tough to get a loan.

The “Buyer Tsunami”

Because of influencers (like myself), “entrepreneurship through acquisition” is a hot topic on social media in 2025.

Awareness is higher than ever, and so is the number of potential buyers.

What does this mean for you as a business buyer?

The competition to buy boomer businesses is greater than anyone expected.

But ultimately, this is still the best time to buy a small business. So don’t let the info above intimidate you!

The keys to success haven’t changed since 2023:

• Carve out time to look for viable businesses while working your day job, nail your outreach process, and build relationships with business owners

• Keep a realistic mindset (anyone who promises that buying a business is “easy” is wrong!)

• Educate yourself — learn how to analyze deals, get financing, and negotiate

If you’re thinking of buying a small business in the near future and would like more personalized guidance: Let me know here.

Or, if you have a business you’d like to sell: Tell me more about it here.

Have a great rest of your week, and I’ll see you in Thursday’s issue!

— Ben Kelly